NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

When I woke up Sunday, I had this image of Rafiki, the baboon in “The Lion King,” saying, “It is time!”

In the film, he meant it was time for Simba to come back and take care of business. I took it as: It’s time for March Madness, and the hundreds of betting opportunities that go with it.

With 67 games and hundreds props for each one — not to mention tournament props and futures markets — a bettor could get overwhelmed trying to figure out what to bet on. Worry not, my friends, because I’m here to help. I make no promises, but here are some of the markets I’m paying attention to (odds via DraftKings):

FIRST FOUR

–No. 16 St. Francis (PA) (+150) vs. No. 16 Alabama State (-3.5)

Have I ever heard of these teams or watched them play? No. My first inclination is to back the team with a winning record (Alabama State 19-15; St. Francis 16-17). But momentum can make a world of difference this time of year.

St. Francis is on a six-game winning streak. Of those games, they were underdogs in four and won the last three regular-season games in overtime. Oh, and they took down the No. 1 seed in the Northeast Conference tournament to win the automatic bid.

You could say they are due for a fall, but I say ride the wave and win some money.

–No. 11 North Carolina vs. No. 11 San Diego State

The Tar Heels have struggled against good teams this season, going 1-12 in Quadrant 1. At 21-9, San Diego State certainly qualifies as a “good team.”

UPSET WATCH

–South No. 14 Lipscomb (+550) vs. No. 3 Iowa State (-13.5)

Iowa State will be without the services of an injured Keshon Gilbert for the tournament. That’s no big deal since he’s missed four of the last seven games, right? Well, they lost three of those four games. On the other hand, 25-9 Lipscomb, winners of the ASUN, may be the best team you’ve never heard of.

–West No. 12 Colorado State (-2.5) vs. No. 5 Memphis (+114)

Memphis is the only team seeded No. 1-7 that is not the betting favorite in their first-round matchup. That disrespect alone should be enough to drive the Tigers to victory.

Are they a national contender? No. They’ll more than likely lose to No. 4 Maryland in the second round (because the Terps are not losing to No. 13 Grand Canyon). But this Memphis team has too much talent and potential not to beat a Colorado State team that may not have made the tournament had it not won the Mountain West.

–No. 12 UC San Diego (+124) vs. No. 5 Michigan (-2.5)

There always seems to be a 12th-ranked team knocked out in the first round. Picking No. 12 Colorado State to beat No. 5 Memphis would be the easy pick since the Rams — on a 10-game winning streak — are actually favored, but that doesn’t really count as an upset pick.

The Tritons are a 30-win team that averages only 8.7 turnovers per game. Michigan, on the other hand, does not do a good job protecting the ball (14.1 turnovers per game). It’s a miracle they even made the Big Ten finals after committing 19 turnovers vs. Maryland.

Michigan is going to run out of luck. It will be a good game, but Michigan’s mistakes will cost them in the end.

BRACKET WINNERS

East Region

I’ve got to go with Duke (-125) to win the East. Cooper Flagg’s recent left ankle injury is a concern, but they proved in winning the ACC tournament they are more than the Cooper Flagg Show. Dark Horse Pick: BYU +1500, more because I have no faith in Alabama, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

Midwest Region

This will finally be Houston’s year (+105) as long as they can remain healthy. Dark Horse Pick: If it’s not Houston, it will be Tennessee (+390) or Kentucky (+1000).

South Region

After watching them lose three of their last four games, I have no faith in Auburn (-160) anymore. But Sparty has been fun to watch this season so I’ll go with Michigan State (+550). Dark Horse Pick: Texas A&M +1700.

West Region

It’s hard not to like Florida (-120), but with the teams in the West, I’m not sure they’ll be able to outscore everyone. I actually like Texas Tech (+600) and Maryland (+700) a lot more. Both are a good combination of scoring ability and defensive prowess. Dark Horse: St. John’s (+650).

NCAA Tournament Winner

Favorite: Houston +600 or Duke +350. Houston’s defense is incredible, and their offense is good enough. As for Duke, it depends on Flagg’s health but he is reportedly expected to play.

Dark Horse: Tennessee +1600 or Alabama +1800

Long Shot: Maryland +4000