GLENDALE, Ariz. — The College Football Playoff quarterfinals kick off with a lone game on Tuesday, with No. 6 seed Penn State taking on No. 3 seed Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Despite being the higher seed, Penn State was a consensus 11.0-point favorite as of Tuesday morning. That includes at DraftKings and BetMGM, where the Nittany Lions have been backed by 62 percent of the spread-line money. Meanwhile, the line had moved to 12.0 at some sportsbooks such at BetRivers.
Penn State’s moneyline to win the game outright opened at -375 at BetMGM, but has moved to -450 with the public backing the Nittany Lions with 70 percent of the money.
“The Penn State faithful are backing the Nittany Lions heavily in the first quarterfinal game,” trading manager Seamus Magee said. “Boise State and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty covering would be great for the book.”
PROP PICKS
–Ashton Jeanty Under 131.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, with the public wagering heavily on Boise State playing from behind and being forced out of a Jeanty-dominated game plan. The Heisman runner-up enters the game with 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground this season.
–Over 53.5 Total Points: The line opened at 54.5 points — the second fewest among the four quarterfinal games — but has shifted down a full point despite the public backing the Over with 79 percent of the total bets and 74 percent of the money.
FIESTA BOWL HISTORY ON LINE
The Broncos, who earned a bye into the matchup in Glendale by winning the Mountain West title, are 3-0 in the Fiesta Bowl.
Penn State (12-2), which advanced to the quarterfinals after beating visiting SMU 38-10 last week in the opening round, is 7-0 in the Fiesta Bowl.
“Our guys are very aware of our history here at Penn State,” coach James Franklin said after a practice this week in Phoenix. “We spend a lot of time in the offseason talking about those things, or former players come back and talk to our guys.”
Boise State (12-1) won its three Fiesta Bowls between 2007 and 2014, including a 43-42 classic in overtime over Adrian Peterson and Oklahoma in 2007.
The Broncos were underdogs in that game and in wins over TCU in 2010 and Arizona in 2014.
“We might not have what everybody else has, but we definitely have enough,” Boise State coach Spencer Danielson said. “We’re going to continue to push forward.”
THE NEWS
Boise State is the last non-Power 4 conference team to win the Fiesta Bowl.
“Boise State has been built on earning our right to play against one of the top football teams in the country like Penn State,” Danielson said. “I believe in our team … please count us out. People, media, count us out. I know how we are going to work, and I know we are going to work to play our absolute best.”
Franklin, an assistant coach at Washington State and Idaho State in 1998 and 1999, respectively, appreciates the Boise State program after coaching in the area.
“Boise State has the ingredients to succeed,” Franklin said. “It’s in the university. It’s in the community. It’s embedded there. And that’s why you’ve seen so many people be able to go there and have success.”
Franklin also praised Jeanty for what he means to Boise State being in the playoffs.
“I think it starts and ends with Jeanty,” Franklin said. “He can run away from you and score from a distance. Breaks a ton of tackles — 1,300 yards of his rushing yards are after contact, which is like a ridiculous stat.”
Jeanty, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting, has 344 carries for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns. He took home the Maxwell Award as the most outstanding player in the sport and was a unanimous All-American selection.
Jeanty is 132 yards from breaking the NCAA single-season rushing record set by Barry Sanders at Oklahoma State in 1988.
Danielson is similarly in awe of Penn State senior tight end Tyler Warren.
Warren, who has a team-best six TD receptions, leads the Nittany Lions in receptions (92) and receiving yards (1,095). Both of those marks are single-season Big Ten records for tight ends. He won the Mackey Award as the nation’s best tight end and finished seventh in the Heisman voting.
“Tyler Warren is elite,” Danielson said. “That’s not just my opinion; I’m very positive he’s going to be the first tight end taken off the board in the NFL draft because of that.
“He can do it all. He is extremely violent at the point of attack. He can catch every ball. He’s one of their top targets on all downs. And he can play wildcat and throw the ball. You talk about just an extremely gifted athlete, we’ve got to know where (Warren) is at all times.”
PREDICTION
Boise State’s lone loss this season came back on Sept. 7 by three points at top-ranked Oregon. The Broncos have reeled off 11 consecutive wins since, but only one against a ranked opponent — a 21-7 victory over then-No. 20 UNLV in the Mountain West championship. Penn State, a power team from a Power 4 conference, presents an obstacle Boise State has yet to encounter this season. The Nittany Lions should control the line of scrimmage on both sides, and how deep the Broncos remain competitive in the game depends on how long they can prevent falling behind by double digits. –Penn State 38, Boise State 20
